A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
